This results in a longer survival with advanced degenerative and

This results in a longer survival with advanced degenerative and disabling diseases so that the period of nothing time that people spend in a state of chronic ill-health and disability at the end of the life increases. An increase in life expectancy, in this case mainly driven by the growing and innovative capabilities of medicine and care to prevent fatal outcomes from degenerative diseases, creates pressure on health and social care services. It is also a burden on carers and communities, as greater numbers suffer chronic disease and disability. Dynamic equilibrium The outcomes envisaged under this hypothesis in terms of an increase in life expectancy as well as better health would be possible if medical interventions and advances as well as lifestyle changes were put in place in an earlier (less severe) stage of the disease process.

Consequently, due to improved secondary prevention, among others, long term social care costs would not have to experience greater pressure. Figures Figures33 and and44 summarise the analysis of the 3 scenarios, illustrating the direction of expected change of healthy life years over the next 10 years. The plausibility in achieving the target of improved lives spent in good health under 2 scenarios – the compression of morbidity and the dynamic equilibrium – can be clearly depicted. These two scenarios predict an increase of HLY at EU average level by 1.6 to 2 years for men and 1.2 to 1.4 years for women This is however, under the condition that relevant policy intervention and action, including health promotion and preventive action and the use of medical and care advances, is implemented.

Also, heterogeneity of developments of HLY among individual countries of the EU calls for intra-country analysis and setting of relevant policy measures. Figure 3 Scenarios for the future male population health by Healthy Life Years (HLY) in the European Union, 2009-2020. Figure 4 Scenarios for the future female population health by Healthy Life Years (HLY) in the European Union, 2009-2020. The results of the study triggered the political decision of setting the global target of 2 additional HLY for the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing to be achieved within a decade. Conclusions The analysis needs to be considered with a high level of prudence and bearing in mind a margin Drug_discovery of error. A series of other factors, as mentioned above, exist that might impact people��s life expectancies, mortality and morbidity rates and have not been considered. Following results observed under the different scenarios (Table (Table1),1), the potential HLY target could foresee an increase by 2 years for men and 1.4 years for women at the EU level. It is a ��grand�� goal but can be reached in next couple of years.

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